Short Sales Can Offer Underwater Homeowners Thousands to Start Fresh

By David Elton, Elton Realty, LLC

How far would $13,427.00 go toward helping get your life back on track? 

My client Jerry, mid-40’s, recently divorced with child shares a familiar experience.  A mortgage broker since the early nineties, he had accumulated a couple investment properties plus a personal home.  By June 2005, the skyrocketing Phoenix real estate market had made him, like many Americans, a ‘paper millionaire.’

Of course just as Jerry had allowed himself to think, ‘Gee, I’m sort of set,’ the market imploded.   Home values plunged.  His mortgage business tanked.   In an effort to ride out storm he refinanced his properties and tapped some much-needed working capital (remaining equity).  By June of 2010, interest rates on Jerry’s adjustable rate mortgages had leapt much higher.

He spent the next two years trying to loan modify his personal home to no avail.  In fact, the process brought him face to face with a few dark realities of the heretofore modification process:

1.  Lenders show little interest/incentive to modify your loan.  A quick check of the latest statistics on the HAMP (Home Affordable Modification Program) website, even after a much publicized improved streamlined process, indicate a whopping 68% of loan mods fail.  It seems banks would rather write the loan off while they can still get benefits from the government to do so or simply take the accounting charge and move on.  

2.  The loan modification process is a good way to lose your home to foreclosure. You see, while you’re busy navigating the interminable trail of forms, personnel and delays, the foreclosure clock keeps ticking. (Even after you resume making ‘modified’ payments as ordered by the bank WHILE they continue to process your application.) Luckily Jerry pulled the plug before things went that far.

By October of 2011, it wasn’t about numbers anymore.  It was, as with many of us, about survival.  Jerry’s two rental properties were weeks away from foreclosure along with his still unmodified personal home.  On the verge of filing bankruptcy, we set a time to discuss options.  BK would clear his debts yes, but also severely limit anything else he could do investment wise for at least seven years.

Jerry had also heard he could simply ‘mail the keys’ back to the banks without any liability because the laws here in Arizona supposedly protected him from banks pursuing any outstanding debt balances.

Not necessarily true.  In Arizona we have something called ‘anti-deficiency statutes’ which protect homeowners (whose properties qualify) from being responsible for the outstanding remaining loan balance (aka the deficiency) in the event they let their homes go to foreclosure.  Loans used to purchase qualifying properties are covered.   However, what many do not realize is that loans such as Refinances or Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCS) taken out AFTER the initial purchase are not covered.  Thus, these lenders typically have recourse to pursue any deficiency judgments against homeowners in the event the property goes to Trustee sale. 

Banks Prefer Short Sales Vs Foreclosure And Underwater Sellers Should Too

The Government has incentivized banks to perform short sales and the banks in turn are passing some of those funds on to struggling homeowners i.e. Bank of America offering $5000 to $30,000 for relocation assistance to sellers approved under their short sale program.  We have seen Chase offering up to $35,000.  

According to the Cromford Report, the Arizona State University based real estate statistic center, total REO inventory of residential properties in Maricopa County are down a whopping 72% from their peak in October 2010 while Short Sale volume has about doubled since June of 2011.

There are many good reasons for that and on one hot monsoony night at a Starbucks just North of the 101 and Tatum, Jerry and I had ‘the talk’ about how best to handle his situation. 

We had three properties to deal with and foreclosure dates looming on all. He had refinanced his properties so ‘mailing keys’ back could expose him as the lenders still had recourse to pursue a deficiency balance.

The properties all had HELOC loans on them as well.  More recourse.

The first step was to get the Foreclosure/Trustee sale dates postponed which we did once we had accepted offers.  This is typical of the short sale process. One cannot typically obtain extensions without submitting an offer.  Jerry’s personal home actually needed two postponements.  In the end, here’s how it all shook out:

 

Investment Property #1

262,000 – negotiated deficiency balance waiver by 1^st lien holder.

30,000 HELOC – Negotiated deficiency balance waiver in exchange for cash settlement of 7000.   3000 of which paid by 1^st lien holder, 4000 paid by Buyer.

Investment Property #2

189,000 Deficiency balance waived by 1^st lien holder

18,000 HELOC – Deficiency balance waived in exchange cash settlement of 3000.   1800 paid by 1^st lien holder, 1200 paid by Buyer.

Personal Home

365,000 deficiency balance waived by 1^st lien holder.

40,000 HELOC – In exchange for waiving deficiency balance a one-time 8000 cash settlement was negotiated.  (2^nd lien holders will also consider promissory notes which span longer periods and are more money to settle)

4000 came from the 1^st lien holder.   3000 came from the Buyer.

1000 came from the Seller/Jerry 
 

$0 = Tax on 365,000 waived deficiency balance.  Due to the 2007 Mortgage Tax Relief Act – there is currently no tax event on forgiven deficiency balances for short sold primary residences. This is another huge advantage to doing the short sale vs allowing the home to go to foreclosure.

NOTE – Unless extended, this Act is due to expire at the end of 2012.   On Jerry’s investment properties, he could be subject to a 1099-c.  (IRS can pursue 1099-c whether the investment property is allowed to go to foreclosure or not)  In terms our investment clients, some have received them, many have not.  

Payoff Received!

$13,427.00 – short sale check to Jerry courtesy of new Bank of America short sale incentive program for relocation expenses.  Not sure why the odd amount.  One can only assume an obscure bank formula. (Jerry used 1000 of this to pay his share of the Seller contribution to the 2^nd lien holder.)

Net Expenses to Short Sale All 3 properties

$0 - All real estate commissions, title and escrow fees and taxes were covered by the 1^st lien holder. (Jerry did need to continue making some HOA payments.) Banks may cover some HOA expense, but that is certainly not guaranteed and varies bank to bank.  As a general rule, Short sale sellers should continue HOA payments for the duration of the transaction.

Totals

816,000 worth of loan deficiency balances waived.  As discussed, since his properties were refinanced, Arizona’s anti-deficiency statutes did NOT protect Jerry. If he had let these properties go back to the bank, he could have been exposed to a deficiency judgment.

88,000 in HELOC loans were negotiated and settled with deficiency balances waived for 14000.   Of that, Buyers paid 13000 and 1000 came from Jerry (thru his B of A relocation funds check)

Lets take a step back and really consider this scenario for moment.  Through the short sale process, Jerry was able to reduce close to $1,000,000 in debt obligation to $0 and get paid $13,427 to do it! 

The trade-off.  Though loan programs are constantly changing, as of now Jerry will be unable to obtain conventional financing for two years from the date of his last closing.  If he remains current on his other bills, his credit score should jump back above 700 within 6-9 months or so. 

First and most important, when considering a short sale use an agent with a vast amount of short sale experience.   You definitely do not want a ‘friend or neighbor’ overseeing the many varied aspects of a short sale.  There can be negative repercussions, especially if they are mishandled.  That said – when done correctly and successfully, you get what our client Jerry experienced.  No more debt obligation, thousands in relocation assistance funds and a fresh start.  That’s the goal we set for all of our short sale clients, which is about the best you can hope for in these brutal economic times. 

Disclaimer:  This article is presented for general informational purposes only.  Every short sale is unique and impact on sellers’ financial condition will vary depending upon each individual situation. Results cannot be guaranteed.  The author is not qualified to give Tax or Legal or Credit or Financial advice.  It is strongly recommended the Reader verify all information herein with a professional/expert, including, but not limited to, certified public accountants, tax advisors, real estate, bankruptcy or tax attorneys and licensed mortgage brokers, to review the ramifications and potential liability prior to entering into a Short Sale, Deed-In-Lieu-Of-Foreclosure, Foreclosure or Bankruptcy.  The author is based in Arizona and much of the information, while general in nature, likely applies more directly to Arizona than other states. 

If you have questions about short sales, please call me for a no-obligation consultation tailored to your specific situation at 480-226-3711 or email davidelton@cox.net or visit eltonrealty.com.  Thank-you.

Phoenix Real Estate - 2011 - An Important Transition Year

                                                                  By    
      
                                            David Elton, Elton Realty, LLC

Judging from the non-stop rants of doom and gloom droning from the media you would think no one wants to own a home anymore and those that still do are in the process of mailing their keys back to the bank.  While housing and the economy at large certainly have a long way to go, by all accounts, 2011 was actually an important transition year for Phoenix Residential Real Estate and most current signs, largely out of the page 1 headlines, portend an uptick for 2012 along with significant opportunity to capitalize on distressed assets.  Consider the following:

                       

1.  Median Home Prices in Phoenix MLS Actually Rose Over 5%.

Many sources, such as Case-Schiller, had median home prices dropping 5% or more, yet whenever I took clients to look at 100k to 150k homes, I ran into multiple offers so I decided to run my own search.  The Average closed sale in our MLS for the first 60 days in 2011 - $156,122, the last 60 days - $164,298 - up 5.24%.  (This, of course, does not include trustee sales, or for sale by owners).    As a companion to this – Active MLS inventory is at one-year lows.  From over 37,000 homes on the market last December we are down to approx 18.6K - a 50% haircut (only 3.2 month supply vs 6.6 months a year ago).  This indicates a market bottom being tested and likely set to move higher.

2.  Canadian Investment Caches Capitalize on Opportunities.

According to The Cromford Report, a leading Phoenix area industry research database, estimates indicate our market to be driven 40 to 50% by the almighty investor.  An October 2011 Wall St. Journal story confirmed a whopping 23% of our nationwide foreign market to Canadians (up 11% from 2007).  Director of the Living Well Homes Investment Fund, Germain Villeneuve from Montreal, has a cool 50 million to spend in the Valley of the Sun.  Since October, Mr. Villeneuve has gobbled up 110 houses and two apartment buildings.  He is one of many.  In short, the Smart Money is betting big on a housing recovery in Phoenix.

3.   Interest Rates Hovered Around 4%.

Who knows where interest rates will land in 2012.   Many pundits believed given the economic/debt turmoil rates would rise in 2011.  That didn’t happen.  Logic indicates however that any spike in inflation as from increased food, energy or commodity prices and/or compounded debt troubles home or abroad, or strains to pay the interest on our burgeoning National debt, would cause the Fed to raise rates to help keep up with said interest payments.   

What potential buyers need to think about is that a bounce in rates from just 4 to 5% equates to about $15,000 in buying power on a $150,000 home (with 20% down) or about 30K on a 300,000 home.  That could mean the difference in getting into a preferred school district, neighborhood or golf community.

4.  Unemployment Fell In Phoenix Ahead of the National Average

Buoyed by the continued influx of technology jobs, Phoenix area unemployment fell to 8.2% in September vs 9% from a year ago and under the National Average of 9%. 

5.  Nationwide Housing Starts Up 24% vs Same Time Last Year.

According to data provided by US Dept of Commerce, November checked in at an annual rate of 685,000, up 9.3 percent from October 2011, and up 24.3 percent from October 2010.  Granted much of the increase came in the multi-family space, but any increase is a positive.  That means more jobs, more expansion in peripheral industries and ultimately and most importantly, more consumer confidence.

                                    Five Ideas For Your Consideration in 2012

1.   Check Out DC Ranch

DC Ranch is perhaps Scottsdale’s most desirable upscale master planned community.  Much of DC was built in 2003 to 2007 (during the bubble) so there are plenty of incredible short sale and bank owned bargains popping up.   Area features Spanish-Mediterranean architecture with homes of all shapes and sizes.  Plus, there are plenty of restaurants, shops and recreation for kids and adults. 

2.    Lock-N-Leave Golf Options Abound. 

Many of our out-of-state clients want golf course communities.   A few of my favorites that feature condo/townhome or single family living and great bargains:  Firerock Country Club, Fountain Hills, Starfire Country Club, Scottsdale,  Las Sendas Country Club, Mesa, Troon, North Scottsdale.  Sunridge Canyon, Fountain Hills.  Grayhawk, North Scottsdale. Eagle Mountain, Scottsdale/Fountain Hills, Camelback Country Club, Paradise Valley, AZ

3.   Upscale Vertical Living Bargains In Scottsdale. 

For those looking for upscale living with the conveniences of a fine hotel, there are myriad of luxurious amenity driven vertical living (typically 4+ stories) options throughout the Scottsdale/Phoenix area.  Some units built in the mid-2000’s, at the height of the market, can be had for incredible values through the short sale or bank owned process.  These complexes are centrally located, typically feature concierge, 24 hour guard gate, wine cellar, pool/spa/steam room/fitness center/outdoor grills/business center, recreation center and more and are walking distance to restaurants, retail and theaters.  Optima at Camelview and Landmark Towers, Scottsdale are two favorites definitely worth considering.

4.   Outlying Areas Provide Opportunities Galore and Rising Rents. 

Pricing has been under pressure in these areas for some time.  Lately, however, we have seen prices not only stabilize, but actually uptick.  Investors continue to drive the market in these areas scooping up multiple properties at a time.  The other big difference from 1 year ago is the increase in rents.  That, coupled with 4.5% investor loans, and make bottom lines that much more attractive.

5.    Short Sales Can Reward Patient Buyers

The short sale seller is usually fighting the clock.   Chances are he/she stopped mortgage payments and face a looming foreclosure date.  The only way Realtors can postpone that date is to get a ‘reasonable’ offer to the bank.  That, in turn, leads to the distressed pricing common in short sales.  Hence some great values for Buyers.  For more on short sales including tips for buyers and sellers please visit eltonrealty.com and click on SHORT SALES or call me direct: 480-226-3711

VALUE PICK OF THE WEEK

3+ 2.5, 2600+ sq. ft. 2 car garage turn-key townhome in guard-gated Eagle Mountain golf community * Open great room floor plan with gas fireplace * Large master bedroom located on lower level with no steps from garage * Eat-in kitchen with island and dining alcove * Walk to heated, community pool/spa and Eagle Mountain clubhouse for breakfast or lunch.  Call me direct for more information on this or any other property. 480-226-3711

David Elton is a licensed Realtor in Arizona with Elton Realty, LLC, a Scottsdale based 2^nd generation full service real estate company serving the Phoenix metro area since 1986.  You can listen live to ‘The Elton Realty’ show on KFNX 1100 AM Wednesdays at noon or stream it at kfnx1100.com.  To listen to past shows please visit  - eltonrealty.com.

Questions and feedback regarding this column are greatly appreciated.  My email is davidelton@cox.net.  Or please call me direct at 480-226-3711

Phoenix Real Estate: A Perfect Storm of Opportunity by David Elton

Bank-owned signs line neighborhoods like suburban grave markers.  New subdivisions have roads, but no houses.    People ‘walk away’ from upside down loans as they might a restaurant tab after bad service.

Tougher mortgage guidelines, unemployment, prolonged political ambivalence in Washington toward our $15,000,000,000,000 uh, ‘problem’, a European financial system on the verge and an overall ‘burn me once but never again’ attitude have conspired to turn about 8 million homeowners into tenants over the past year.  (48% increase according to the real estate site Trulia.com)  Pundits have piled on too calling homeownership a ‘must avoid’, not worth the risk, the headache or the heartache.  

Noted CNBC contributor, Venture Capitalist, James Altucher, earlier this year posted  “Why I Am Never Going To Own A Home Again” along with ten reasons in support of his thesis. (See reference guide below)

Yes, Humpty Dumpty has had one helluva a great fall.  If this were a championship fight, the trainer would have flung in the white towel years ago.  All of which is precisely why, as our housing bear market enters its 7^th year, I posit:  Has there ever been a better time to buy a house in Arizona?  Consider the following:

Interest rates are hovering just over 4%, historically low by any measure.  Phoenix median home prices have remained in the 120,000 range for the past 12 months signaling a bottom being tested.   Total REO’s (bank owned) closed sales during past 60 days vs same time last year, are down 21%.  Buoyed by the continued influx of technology jobs, Phoenix area unemployment fell to 8.2% in September vs 9% from a year ago and under the National Average of 9.1%.   MLS Inventory is pushing one-year lows.  From over 37,000 homes on the market last December we are now down to aprox 19.5k - almost a 50% haircut (only 3.3 month supply vs 6.6 months a year ago) Meanwhile, rent rates have pushed higher approaching $1/foot in many central areas.   Today, with 20% down, a mortgage payment on a median priced home is about $470/month.   The same house now rents for about $1100/month.  I’m no economic major, but why would I rent something I could own for around half the monthly nut AND reap any future upside?

Please allow me to indulge with one more and perhaps most important stat: According to the Cromford Report, a leading Phoenix area industry research database, just 339 new homes were completed in October as compared with some 4000 in September of 2006.   When you merge the lack of new construction with annual lows in inventory and a rapidly improving home affordability index (measures debt-to income-to mortgage payment ratio) you get someone like Doug Brien, former New York Jet place kicker, now managing director of Oakland based Waypoint Real Estate Group coming to town.  Doug has purchased 700 rental properties over the past couple years.  “At some point, there will be a shortage of housing.  Everyone is realizing that single-family buy-and-hold is the way to go.”

CNN Money caught up with 70 year-old rancher Mike Castleman, founder and CEO of the real estate analysis firm Metrostudy on his 460 acre Bar Ten Creek Ranch in Dripping Springs Texas just outside Austin.  Metrostudy has compiled new home sales data for over 30 years, covers 19 states, or around 65% of the U.S. housing market, including those hardest hit by the crash i.e. Arizona.  He’s seen his share of market cycles and claims this recovery will look much like the rest:  It will bring a severe shortage of housing.  One day, "we'll get a big surge in demand and the drywall companies will take a long time to ramp up, and it will take years to get new lots approved.  Buyers will show up looking for a house in a subdivision, and all the houses will be sold. Builders will tell them it will take six months to deliver a house. But those folks will be set on buying a place.  And they'll want it so bad they'll bid the prices up!" In other words:  Beat the crowd.

THE BIG BOYS AKA ‘THE SMART MONEY’ HAVE ALREADY LANDED IN PHOENIX

And helping to lead the charge – that’s right.  Oh Canada!   An October 2011 Wall St. Journal story attributes a whopping 23% of our nationwide foreign market to Canadians (up 11% from 2007).  Germain Villeneuve, former Montreal real estate broker/investor and director of the Living Well Homes Investment Fund has a tidy 50 million to spend in the Valley of the Sun.  Since October, he’s gobbled up 110 houses and two apartment buildings!

Mr. Villeneuve’s plan is appropriately simple.  Rehab and rent out for 5 to 7 years. “We know that when (the economy) recovers, the homes will appreciate in value and the US dollar will get stronger so when it comes time to move our money back into Canadian dollars we’ll make more money.”

The Cromford Report indicates our current market is 40 to 50% investor driven.   One large player, Carrington Property Services, LLC out of Santa Ana, CA., plans to purchase up to 5000 rental homes in Phoenix, Chicago, Las Vegas and Miami.

We have significant hurdles to be sure.   Distressed inventory will continue to hold down prices near-term.  The economy needs to begin expanding again and with that consumer confidence, job creation – all the usual suspects.   But the underlying indicators look good and the table appears set to allow basic laws of supply and demand to eventually move the market higher. 

Perhaps the Cowboy/CEO Castleman summed it up at its simple best, "I’m a dirt road economist who sees what’s happening on the ground, and in 35 years I’ve never seen a shortage of new construction like the one I’m seeing today.  The talking heads who are down on real estate will hate to hear this, but America needs to build a lot more houses.  And in most markets the price of new homes is fixin’ to rise, not fall.”

Sources referenced in this blog:

1.  ‘Canadians Warm to Phoenix’ by Chana R. Schoenberger, Wall St. Journal - October 6, 2011

2.  ‘Big Money Gets Into Landlord Game’ by Robbie Whelen, Wall St. Journal - August 4, 2011

3.  ‘Phoenix Home-Price Puzzle: How to Rise from Ashes?” by Jim Carlton, Wall St. Journal – November 21, 2011

4.  ‘Why I Am Never Going to Own a Home Again’ posted by James Altucher, March 19, 2011.

5.  http://info.trulia.com/index.php?s=43&item=131

6.  CNN Money: Real estate: It's Time to Buy Again’  by Shawn Tully, senior editor,  March 28, 2011

7.  Smart Money Magazine: “It’s Time to Buy That House,” September 2011, by Jack Hough

David Elton is a licensed Realtor in Arizona.  Elton Realty is a 2^nd generation full service real estate company based in Scottsdale Arizona serving the Phoenix metro area since 1994.    You can listen live to ‘The Elton Realty’ show on KFNX 1100 AM Wednesdays at 12 noon or stream it at kfnx1100.com.  To listen to past shows please visit our site - www.eltonrealty.com.

Questions and feedback regarding this column are greatly appreciated.  My email is davidelton@cox.net. 

To Go ‘Long’ Real Estate, Try Going ‘Short’

She nudged a fall of hair from her eyes, signed and slid the page back.  “Anything else?”

“That’s it,” I said straightening what had become a thicket of paperwork.

“Maybe seven’s our lucky number, eh?” she said with a hopeful smile referring to her 7^th short sale offer.  

“Keep your fingers crossed.” 

My client Amy had a lot going on.  A Pharmaceutical Sales Rep, single mother of four elementary/pre-school kids, her day planner had something every 15 minutes.  Time was precious.  It was also running out.

We had to secure housing soon or she would be obligated to renew the lease on a cramped two bedroom condo she and the kids were piled into so they could be in her preferred school district. 

But it couldn’t be just any house.  

You may have caught a hint of Canada in her accent – Northwestern Minnesota actually near Moorhead.  She grew up on a farm and wanted her kids to experience animals and wide open spaces. 

Whatever we found had to be on at least an acre.  No track.  No HOA.  Mountain views.  2000+ sq ft.  4 bedrooms.  Oh, and under 250k.

We had seen everything new to the market for weeks.  Then, on a lark, I ran a ‘BACK ON MARKET’ search just in case I missed something that had fallen out of escrow.  This beautiful Santa Fe custom 4 bdrm, 2 bath about 2500 sq ft on 1.5 acres, with ‘calendar’ views of iconic Four Peaks popped up at 249,900 in Rio Verde, a rural area just east of N. Scottsdale. 

It seemed too good to be true.   Terrific price and it met all of Amy’s criteria.  One major red flag - it had been on market 400+ days?   With a price like that, there had to be something wrong with the house, right?

I called the listing agent and got the scoop.  The house had fallen out of escrow several times.  The main stumbling block had been the 2^nd lien holder.  They wanted an additional $17,000 to release their lien against the property.

“…And they won’t let the Seller pay it.”

“You got it,” the listing agent said, “That’s been our major hurdle.  And now the trustee date is only two days away.  Not sure we can save it.”

I had done a similar deal and had a good idea of what to do, but it had to make sense.  I knew with only two days until foreclosure the agent would be straight with me.

“What’s the minimum the 1^st will accept?” I asked.

“218,000.”

In a short sale the Seller must show hardship.  If the 1^st lien saw the Seller had additional funds ($17,000 for the 2^nd) they would cannibalize those funds toward the deficiency on their much larger 1^st.   That’s why the seller could not payoff the 2^nd.

So if we offered 218 for the house and Amy could come up with the 17K for the 2^nd, all-in we’d be 237K.  Incredible.  A little more cash out of pocket, yes, but with a FHA 3.5% down loan Amy’s total out of pocket would be just a shade over 10% - definitely within budget and worth doing to secure the big prize.

Under this scenario, the 1^st got their requested payoff.   The 2^nd got settled.  The Seller avoided foreclosure.  And most important for me, Amy got her custom home with views, wide-open spaces and at great price.   Everybody won.

Of the seven offers we submitted, this was the only one that went through.  On the others, we were either out bid (mostly because the homes were over our budget) or in a back-up position that would not have worked.

It takes a little perseverance and patience, but to take advantage of our distressed market, short sales allow you to put numbers on your side by submitting multiple offers with minimal risk.  It’s the law of averages.  If you throw 10 darts, one of them is bound to score, hopefully big.

On a side note – the appraisal, which notoriously tends to ‘gravitate’ toward the sales price, came in at 257K – 20K above Amy’s ‘all-in’ price of 237.   That’s what we like to see.

The Great Deal vs The Great Value

by David Elton                                     

The voice tinged with rasp on the line was that of my client Henry from New Jersey, ‘New Joizee’ to some.

“Dave,” he said, “I’m done.  Can’t do it.  Sorry if I wasted your time on this thing.”

Henry was a cash buyer.  I’d been sending him 50 to 100k rental property options for about a month.  Originally, he had it in his mind to buy “4 or 5”.   “Find me some great deals, “ he had said.

 “How ‘bout a bank-owned 3000 square footer with a pool and three car garage for 100k?  Just came on.  Does that work?” 

Henry wasted no time.  “Did you see the market, Friday?!  Down like a gazillion points.  Who knows where this thing is going?!   I think I gotta keep what I still got!” 

Then in the next breath, “I dunno.  Do you think they would take 60 grand?” 

And so it began and apparently ended just as fast: the quest for next the mythic ‘Great Deal’. 

I remember a time not too long ago cars lined neighborhood streets when new homes hit the market.   Think Super Bowl block party – that’s what it was like.  Agents wrote spur-of-the-moment offers on car hoods, in spare bedrooms, bathroom counter tops.  It was truly surreal.   My point - back then paying 50,000 OVER ASKING was apparently a ‘Great Deal’ to some.  And for the few who sold prior to 2006 – it turned out to be quite the windfall indeed.

Thus, we learn the quest for the next Great Deal is essentially about timing, which is about the future, which as far as I’m aware, is unknowable.

The reality is that the vast majority of people stayed away from 2002 thru 2004.  By 2005, prices continued to rocket higher.  In some areas prices increased 10, 20, $50,000/week!  Finally, the masses could not take it any longer.  They had to ‘get in’ and ‘get in’ at ANY PRICE.  In their minds ‘ANY PRICE!’ became the definition of the next Great Deal.

Sadly, as in all climax runs, those folks who ‘got in’ late were taken out to the wood- chipper. (This columnist included)   There’s a word for that – greed - the rocket fuel of capitalism.

Which brings me back to the present day and a much different market climate.  9% unemployment, Europe on the verge of collapse, the first truly Global Recession/Depression depending on which ‘expert’ you listen to.  Why, I bet if I showed Henry a house today for $10, he would undoubtedly offer $5.  Can you blame him?  It’s not just him.  It’s the majority of us.   There’s a word for that too – ‘fear’, the kryptonite of capitalism.  

When the stock market finally bottomed in 1932 – it was on one of the lowest volume days in the history.  There were literally no more buyers.  If not for a consortium lead by a banker named E.F. Hutton providing emergency liquidity, (not unlike Buffet today) the financial system may have collapsed. (Sound familiar?)

Turns out if you had bought along with Mr. Hutton at the deepest darkest depths of the abyss you would have tripled your money by 1935.  If you had bought after the crash of October 1987 you would have captured a 10-year bull run in stocks, one of the greatest in market history.

Here’s the brutal, gut-wrenching irony of it all.  Most of us would not take a Great Deal if it showed up gift-wrapped on our doorsteps.  We’re either too afraid prices will go lower (fear) or, when we finally do take the plunge, it’ll be when prices have already spiraled out of control. (greed) 

The result – most of us never win! 

So, is this a good time to find a Great Deal you ask?  Don’t know.  As my broker/brother likes to say, our crystal ball is in the shop – so rather than focus on the unknowable, what we prefer to do is look at empirical data, breakdown the numbers to give us clear perspective and see if we can find – a Great Value – today.

Case-Schiller just released housing numbers for August.  Phoenix showed a .01% decline in housing prices.  More data:  Phoenix median home price has remained in the 115k to 120k range for most of the past year.  By comparison – Houston is 159k, the Northeast 200k+.   Today, we have one of the most affordable housing markets in the country when compared with other major metro areas.  Current prices are now below pre-bubble levels in most areas.  Early in 2010 our MLS inventory reached over 60,000 homes –now we are under 20,000.  Combine that with the lowest interest rates, solid growth projections and the highest rent rates in our history and some extremely motivated sellers and you have the recipe for what could be some Great Values today and possibly Great Deals tomorrow and beyond.

There’s a reason large investment firms, (aka the smart money) have been gobbling up properties here by the thousands.   Wonder why?   I’ll tell you.  The smart money always exploits fear.   Which brings me back to yesterday.

The phone buzzed, my ‘Joizee’ client Henry. 

“You mentioned those short sales.  How does that work again?  Don’t they take forever?  They fall apart.  Then what?!”

Wait a second.  Was Henry back in the game?  Was he actually going to take that leap of faith during this, one of the blackest periods for housing in recent memory?  I masked my surprise in an overview about why short sales are perhaps the best game in town for buyers to obtain great value on their purchase.  (Henry had heard this before but was so focused on ‘The Great Deal’ he was after he had missed most of it.)

Silence on the other end.  “I dunno, Dave.  It sounds good, but I gotta think about it.  I”ll get back to you if I’m interested.   But hey.  if they’ll take 50k for that house lemme know.”

Elton Realty - For Your Next Move TO or IN Arizona

No matter which part of Arizona you are looking to relocate to, Elton Realty Real Estate Agents are best equipped to handle your move.